This year’s field feels like a brisk walk through every corner of the musical village—from Bad Bunny’s DeBÍ TiRAR Más Fotos staking a seriously historic claim in the Album of the Year race, to Kendrick Lamar’s GNX doubling down on the uncompromising rap artistry that’s earned him nine nominations. Lady Gaga, Justin Bieber, Leon Thomas, Tyler, the Creator, and Clipse’s long‑awaited return all sit shoulder to shoulder in the top categories, underscoring that the Grammys aren’t just about “serious art” versus “pop music” so much as how those worlds can coexist. Meanwhile, the Record and Song of the Year races feature everything from Billie Eilish’s wistful (and confusingly eligible) “WILDFLOWER” to Doechii’s meme-ified “Anxiety,” Sabrina Carpenter’s inescapable “Manchild,” and ROSÉ & Bruno Mars’ painfully looped “APT.,” highlighting a year that was both kaleidoscopic and played it a bit too safe. 

So, with the field stacked and the voting quirks ever-present, we’ve rolled up our sleeves, peered into our crystal ball, and tried our best to predict who might actually walk away with gold on Feb. 1, 2026. Expect a mix of the inevitable, the surprising, and the artists you encountered whether you opted in or not.

 

Album of the Year

• Bad Bunny – DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS
• Justin Bieber – SWAG
• Sabrina Carpenter – Man’s Best Friend
• Clipse, Pusha T, and Malice – Led God Sort Em Out
• Lady Gaga – MAYHEM
• Kendrick Lamar – GNX
• Leon Thomas – MUTT
• Tyler, The Creator – CHROMAKOPIA

Save for Leon Thomas’s MUTT and Clipse’s long-awaited Let God Sort ’Em Out—two wonderfully left-field nominees—this year’s Album of the Year race was basically written in stone months before the official nominations even dropped. From Kendrick Lamar’s GNX, a sprawling, unflinching meditation on legacy and control, to Bad Bunny’s genre-bending DeBÍ TiRAR Más Fotos, the category is a study in contrasts: the intensely personal versus the globally omnipresent and the experimental versus the polished. 

Yet amid the expected entries, a few glaring omissions—most notably Lorde’s Virgin—make it clear that even in a category that (seemingly) prizes ambition, the Grammys still struggle to balance taste, influence, and sheer audacity, which is exactly why we expect to see GNX walking away with the hardware, even if MAYHEM truly embodies the restless, inventive spirit that the category should champion.

Will Win: GNX

Should Win: MAYHEM

Should Have Been Here: Lorde – Virgin

 

Record of the Year

• Bad Bunny – “DtMF”
• Sabrina Carpenter – “Manchild”
• Doechii – “Anxiety”
• Billie Eilish – “WILDFLOWER”
• Lady Gaga – “Abracadabra”
• Kendrick Lamar & SZA – “luther”
• Chappell Roan – “The Subway”
• ROSÉ & Bruno Mars – “APT.”

Record of the Year is where the Grammys’ obsession with surface-level impact really shows itself: not the song that sparked conversation, necessarily, but the one that sounded the most inescapable. This year’s nominees split cleanly between immaculate pop engineering (Sabrina Carpenter’s “Manchild,” Billie Eilish’s feather-light “WILDFLOWER”), culture-moment collaborations (Kendrick Lamar and SZA’s stately “luther,” ROSÉ and Bruno Mars’ hyper-competent “APT.”), and a handful of songs that gesture toward risk without ever fully committing, like Doechii’s tightly wound but ultimately conventional “Anxiety.” 

Still, this is a category that reliably mistakes saturation for inevitability, which makes “APT.”—a song engineered to feel unfortunately unavoidable in any room with a speaker—the most likely victor, even if “Abracadabra” is the rare nominee that actually sounds like it’s having fun with pop’s possibilities. And while no one should expect the Grammys to reward something as casually sharp and internet-native as Addison Rae’s “Headphones On,” its absence is a reminder that the Academy remains far more comfortable ratifying success than recognizing momentum.

Will Win: “APT.”

Should Win: “Abracadabra”

Should Have Been Here: Addison Rae – “Headphones On”

 

Song of the Year

• Lady Gaga – “Abracadabra”
• Doechii – “Anxiety”
• Rosé & Bruno Mars – “APT.”
• Huntr/x (Ejae, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami) – “Golden” (from KPop Demon Hunters)
• Kendrick Lamar & SZA – “luther”
• Sabrina Carpenter – “Manchild”
• Billie Eilish – “WILDFLOWER”

Song of the Year is the Grammys’ attempt to freeze a year’s worth of feeling into a single, officially sanctioned sentiment. This year’s nominees range from carefully authored intimacy to the collaborative gravitas of tracks like “luther,” a song that arrived already wrapped in the language of significance. Elsewhere, Huntr/x’s hyper-viral “Golden” reflects a culture increasingly fluent in frictionless, cross-platform songwriting—songs built to travel fast, scale cleanly, and mean just enough to everyone. 

In that context, “luther” feels like the Academy’s most comfortable choice: culturally legible in a way that flatters its own self-image. “Abracadabra,” however, is the nominee that resists easy interpretation altogether, treating pop as volatile, excessive, and thrillingly unconcerned with being understood. The absence of Lorde’s “What Was That” only sharpens the point: even now, the Grammys remain uneasy with songs that capture a real feeling before culture has decided what to do with them.

Will Win: “luther”

Should Win: “Abracadabra”

Should Have Been Here: Lorde – “What Was That”

 

Best New Artist

• Olivia Dean
• KATSEYE
• The Marías
• Addison Rae
• Sombr
• Leon Thomas
• Alex Warren
• Lola Young

Best New Artist is less a recognition of discovery than a carefully selected snapshot of whom the Academy feels it can endorse without triggering too many eyes rolling. Olivia Dean, our presumed winner, fits the mold perfectly: talented, tasteful, and just well-lit enough to be widely acknowledged without raising eyebrows. Addison Rae, by contrast, embodies the category’s latent tension—the way virality, social-media clout, and sheer momentum now compete with traditional gatekeeping, even if her music actually argues more convincingly for the win. 

The Marías, KATSEYE, and Sombr hover in that familiar gray zone of “critically acceptable but not institutionally urgent,” while Leon Thomas and Lola Young feel like reminders that the category still attempts to balance identity, genre, and platform cachet—though often with a heavy hand. The head-scratching absence of Audrey Hobert emphasizes the absurdity at the heart of this category: what counts as “new” is less about timing or talent than about who the Academy is willing to officially canonize as part of the pop-cultural conversation.

Will Win: Olivia Dean

Should Win: Addison Rae

Should Have Been Here: Audrey Hobert

 

Best Pop Vocal Album

• Justin Bieber – SWAG
• Sabrina Carpenter – Man’s Best Friend
• Miley Cyrus – Something Beautiful
• Lady Gaga – MAYHEM
• Teddy Swims – I’ve Tried Everything But Therapy (Part 2)

Best Pop Vocal Album is where the Grammys’ obsession with neatness and branding really comes into focus. This year, Man’s Best Friend looks poised to win, a technically flawless album that checks all the boxes of accessibility, charm, and procedural safety. Meanwhile, Miley Cyrus’s grandiose exploration of genre, Something Beautiful, is what actually rubs against the grain—basically everything the Academy pretends to reward but often sidesteps in practice. 

Whether it’s the exclusion of Lorde’s Virgin (notice a theme here?) or JADE’s THAT’S SHOWBIZ BABY!, this year’s snubs highlight the category’s persistent blind spot for records that operate outside the comfort zone of glossy persona management. This is a category where the most calculatedly appealing package usually wins, but the albums that truly deserve recognition are often the ones that never made it onto the ballot.

Will Win: Man’s Best Friend

Should Win: Something Beautiful

Should Have Been Here: Lorde – Virgin OR JADE – THAT’S SHOWBIZ BABY!

 

Best Dance Pop Recording

• Selena Gomez & benny blanco – “Bluest Flame”
• Lady Gaga – “Abracadabra”
• Zara Larsson – “Midnight Sun”
• Tate McRae – “Just Keep Watching (From “F1® The Movie”)”
• PinkPantheress – “Illegal”

At the Grammys, Dance Pop Recording has come to describe a very specific feeling: pop music that moves like dance music without ever losing its center. PinkPantheress’s “Illegal” is sure to win, and it’s easy to see why: the track jitters like it’s wired into multiple time signatures at once, her voice thin and insistent. Zara Larsson’s “Midnight Sun,” on the other hand, is a soft-landing sort of perfection—vocal runs that float above spacious synths, a chorus that blooms like LED constellations—and it’s the one that proves pop can be engineered for maximum warmth without losing complexity.

Will Win: “Illegal”

Should Win: “Midnight Sun”

Should Have Been Here: FKA twigs – “Perfect Stranger”

 

Best Alternative Album

• Bon Iver – SABLE, fABLE
• The Cure – Songs Of A Lost World
• Tyler, The Creator – DON’T TAP THE GLASS
• Wet Leg – moisturizer
• Hayley Williams – Ego Death At A Bachelorette Party

This year’s Best Alternative Album lineup balances discernment, backward glances, and just enough risk-taking to keep things interesting. Bon Iver’s SABLE, fABLE is a meticulously sculpted collection that trades intimacy for craft and announces its ambition with all the authority of a spreadsheet. Hayley Williams’s Ego Death At A Bachelorette Party is alive in a way that the category rarely rewards: brash and full of theatrical stumbles that somehow feel deliberate. Wet Leg’s moisturizer flirts with irreverence and Tyler, The Creator’s DON’T TAP THE GLASS oscillates between absurdity and mastery. However, the absence of both Perfume Genius’s Glory and Blood Orange’s Essex Honey underscore how the Grammys still struggle with albums that occupy territory too uncategorizable or too slippery to easily reward.

Will Win: SABLE, fABLE

Should Win: Ego Death At A Bachelorette Party

Should Have Been Here: Perfume Genius – Glory OR Blood Orange – Essex Honey

 

Best Rock Album

• Deftones – private music
• HAIM – I quit
• Linkin Park – From Zero
• Turnstile – NEVER ENOUGH
• YUNGBLUD – Idols

Turnstile’s NEVER ENOUGH is both the obvious and deserved winner of Best Rock Album this year: a record that thrums with both adrenaline and the kind of discipline that somehow still feels loose. Deftones’ private music broods like a storm, HAIM’s I quit glimmers with restraint, and Linkin Park’s From Zero nods to nostalgia without ever fully living in it. While the inclusion of the masterful From The Pyre by The Last Dinner Party would have pushed the envelope further, the Academy seems content here: reward the momentum, acknowledge the craft, and leave the edges alone.

Will Win: NEVER ENOUGH

Should Win: NEVER ENOUGH

Should Have Been Here: The Last Dinner Party – From The Pyre

 

Best Progressive R&B Album

• FLO – Access All Areas
• Bilal – Adjust Brightness
• Durand Bernarr – Bloom
• Terrace Martin & Kenyon Dixon – Come As You Are
• Destin Conrad – Love on Digital

This is one of the Grammys’ most elastic categories, meant to capture forward motion but often functioning as a holding space for artists who don’t quite fit the traditional R&B mold. In practice, it tends to reward records that gesture toward experimentation while remaining legible to the institution’s idea of refinement. FLO’s Access All Areas fits that balance cleanly: sleek, digitally fluent, and self-assured without overreaching, it’s progressive in presentation rather than actual disruption, which makes it an easy and likely winner. Still, the category’s limitations show in who’s missing. Albums like Rochelle Jordan’s Through The Wall or Nourished by Time’s The Passionate Ones pushed R&B into stranger and riskier territory this year—records whose absence emphasize how narrowly the Grammys continue to define progress.

Will Win: Access All Areas

Should Win: Access All Areas

Should Have Been Here: Rochelle Jordan – Through The Wall OR Nourished by Time – The Passionate Ones

 

Best Rap Album

• Clipse, Pusha T & Malice – Let God Sort Em Out
• GloRilla – GLORIOUS
• JID – God Does Like Ugly
• Kendrick Lamar – GNX
• Tyler, The Creator – CHROMAKOPIA

The Grammys have always had a complicated relationship with rap: a genre defined by immediacy, risk, and cultural weight, but often judged through the lens of legacy and polish. This year is no different. Kendrick Lamar’s GNX is the kind of album that fits neatly into that paradigm—dense, ambitious, and already positioned as a critical event—making it the obvious frontrunner. However, if Clipse were to take home the trophy for Let God Sort Em Out—our ideal outcome—it would be a small but meaningful signal that focus, restraint, and sheer skill can still be rewarded.

Will Win: GNX

Should Win: Let God Sort Em Out

Should Have Been Here: Little Simz – Lotus