Whether the hubbub is started by online stan wars or rival studios, the leading 13 nominations racked up by Emilia Perez have come under scrutiny for various reasons – worst of which being a volley of distasteful comments by its lead actress – while others jockey for position by bringing up films’ usages of AI. It just signifies that this is a year in which truly anything could happen.

Still, the ten lucky films that did wind up nabbing those Best Picture slots offer quite a bit to be celebrated. We have Wicked, Dune, and A Complete Unknown, big-budget blockbusters that delivered quality and got people talking. There are innovative picks like The Substance, a French body-horror film, and Nickel Boys, a movie shot with heavy use of first-person perspective. On opposite sides of the spectrum, two of the year’s most acclaimed movies were Anora, a madcap comedy with a lot of heart that follows a sex worker, and The Brutalist, a drama-laden epic about the American dream that runs nearly four hours when its intermission is taken into account – all made for under ten million dollars, in a feat of wizardry. Brazil’s I’m Still Here was the biggest surprise nomination in many years, proving the strength of the international voting contingent, while Emilia Perez – regardless of how one might feel its acts of representation could use some improvement – did break a nomination record for recognition of international cinema, and puts a trans story front and centre of a presumptive Oscar frontrunner. 

However the cards fall, with host Conan O’Brien at the helm when the show airs on Sunday, March 2, it will likely be a ceremony not-to-be missed. Here are our best guesses at who could triumph in 10 of the night’s biggest categories. 

Best Picture

• Anora

• The Brutalist

• A Complete Unknown

• Conclave

• Dune: Part Two

• Emilia Perez

• I’m Still Here

• Nickel Boys

• The Substance

• Wicked

While a few important precursor ceremonies – like the BAFTAs and Screen Actors Guild Awards – have yet to be announced, from the information we have, we already know that it’s likely to be a little more difficult to predict this award than usual. Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys and I’m Still Here, lacking many other nominations across the field, must have barely scraped into the lineup, while Wicked and The Substance feel like the kind of genre fare that the ceremony typically ignores for its biggest prizes. 

The Brutalist and Emilia Perez scored the two big prizes (for Drama and Musical/Comedy, respectively) at the Golden Globes, while Anora has been showing off a late surge, scoring big at the Critics’ Choice awards as well as two major guilds – the Producers’ and Directors’ branches. All three films performed as well or even better than expected on nomination morning. The Brutalist racked up a very solid ten nominations, but it’s also the kind of dense, unwieldy and sombre film that often starts strong and fizzles out at the Oscars, like Roma or The Power of the Dog before it. It also faltered with the actors’ guild, the biggest branch of voters at the Oscars, by missing some key nominations at their ceremony. Emilia Perez, on the other hand, has proven divisive despite its impressive haul and could fall apart with the Oscars’ ranked-ballot system (it’s likely to have as many last-place votes as first-place ones). Plus, with final voting starting soon, will anybody want to throw votes its way after the controversies? 

If you’re looking for dark horses, A Complete Unknown or Conclave, both extremely accessible and likable films, could fit the bill. The Bob Dylan biopic surprised with eight total nominations, picking up some unexpected ones like Monica Barbaro’s supporting turn as Joan Baez, so it’s clear many have been underestimating the all-around love for the film. Many expected the satisfying Conclave to rise out of the drama and coast to victory (mirroring the narrative of the film itself), but it missed some critical pieces it was expected to receive, like Best Director and Best Cinematography – we’ll stick it firmly in fifth for now. At the moment, the crowd-pleasing Anora has the least marks against it, with a slight edge over all of the chaos. 

Will Win: Anora
Should Win: The Substance
Should Have Been Here: A Real Pain

 

Best Actor

• Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)

• Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)

• Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)

• Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

• Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

One of the most exciting parts of the Oscars in the last couple of years has been the way that both the Best Actor and Best Actress race have seemed to always come down to an intense two-horse race. The pendulum swings back and forth as they trade off giving speeches, leaving the ultimate victor a surprise on the actual night. This year is no different, and there’s a storyline that couldn’t be written that goes along with it in this particular category. Back in 2003, a 29-year-old Adrien Brody became the youngest man ever to pick up this award (for The Pianist). Now, he’s back – and he’s in need of preserving his own record by besting his competitor, Timothee Chalamet. Also 29, Chalamet would beat him by about nine months if his Bob Dylan portrayal led him to a golden statuette. 

The two actors have been dominating their competition this season, and while Brody has the upper hand at the moment, Chalamet has proven an expert campaigner (even appearing as the musical guest on SNL to sing Dylan tracks) and could easily gain momentum. Although – you have to imagine the Truth Social rant the next day if voters elected to prioritize a message and throw support behind surprise candidate Sebastian Stan, whose turn as Donald Trump is certainly less than adulatory. 

Will Win: Timothee Chalamet
Should Win: Adrien Brody
Should Have Been Here: Hugh Grant (Heretic)

 

Best Actress

• Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)

• Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez)

• Mikey Madison (Anora)

• Demi Moore (The Substance)

• Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

On the ladies’ side, things have come down to a fierce battle between a promising newcomer, Mikey Madison, and Demi Moore, a respected veteran finally getting the praise she’s deserved. First of all, we have to talk about how insane it is that an audacious, outlandish and downright disgusting film (in the best way) like The Substance is within sniffing distance of any awards, let alone the likeliest bet for its lead to win. Moore’s performance has been gif’d to death on social media, and for good reason – it’s equal parts funny, transformative (if you’ve seen her under her excessive layers of body-horror makeup) and touching, centering on the fabled “mirror scene” where she finds herself wishing she could shed her own skin, nervous for a date. Not only that, she crushed her acceptance speech at the Golden Globes, furthering her narrative about finally being taken seriously and closing with some inspiring words to women of all ages. 

Madison, however, is just as much of a champion with the critics and would be equally as deserving for her portrayal of a deeply complex character in Anora. While we’re on Moore’s side for now, we also have to note that Fernanda Torres might have more passion than you’d expect from the international crowds – after all, she took home a Globe as well. 

Will Win: Demi Moore

Should Win: Demi Moore

Should Have Been Here: Angelina Jolie (Maria)

 

Best Supporting Actor

• Yura Borisov (Anora)

• Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)

• Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)

• Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)

• Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

One of the most locked-up awards of the night, despite the fact that the man who’s been sweeping the awards – Kieran Culkin, playing a troubled yet charismatic free spirit on a Holocaust tour – isn’t even in a Best Picture nominee. That’s a true rarity, but he’s far enough in the lead (and his film was highly likely in eleventh place, just barely missing the cut) that it shouldn’t matter too much. He faces competition from his Succession castmate Jeremy Strong and Edward Norton, playing Pete Seeger and still vying for his first Oscar (it’s his fourth nomination), but Culkin’s performance is too likable to ignore. It’s all about that old adage – he’s the one that will make you laugh and cry in equal measure. 

Will Win: Kieran Culkin

Should Win: Kieran Culkin

Should Have Been Here: Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

 

Best Supporting Actress

• Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)

• Ariana Grande (Wicked)

• Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)

• Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)

• Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)

This category was causing pundits to pull out their hair leading up to the nominations announcement – there were about ten different performances showing up at various ceremonies and critics circles, so nobody quite knew who was going to make the cut. In fact, there were only two women that people were truly sure would appear, who have gotten in everywhere they’ve needed to: Ariana Grande and Zoe Saldana. Saldana has the edge after picking up the Golden Globe, and it would be truly nice to reward her for a great career so far. Although, if we’re at the kind of ceremony where winners like Demi Moore and Kieran Culkin will be announced, not to mention the likely search for something feel-good in the wake of the doom and gloom on everyone’s newsfeeds, there’s always a chance that something a little lighter shows up.

Grande’s performance as Galinda, the Good Witch of the South, has fans of her musical output and movie lovers alike rallying behind her. They argue that the Oscars should recognize performances that are a little more comedic every once in a while, noting that the kind of timing and improvisation she displays can’t be taught and that she’s obviously incredibly passionate about bringing the role she’s aspired to since childhood to life. Saldana is well-respected, but she might become guilty by association with Emilia Perez and open the door for Grande to step through. 

Will Win: Ariana Grande

Should Win: Ariana Grande

Should Have Been Here: Margaret Qualley (The Substance)

 

Best Director

• Sean Baker (Anora)

• Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)

• James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

• Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez)

• Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)

The Brutalist director Brady Corbet was already seen as a frontrunner to take home this award when it was reported that he was able to shoot his wide-reaching epic – which contains quite a few large set pieces – for under ten million dollars. However, he should be seen as the frontrunner even more so now that his movie is clearly respected across many of the guilds that vote for these awards, racking up the second-most nominations on Oscar morning with ten (and that’s just because his movie wasn’t competing in the musical categories, like Emilia Perez). 

Of course, there are a couple viable spoilers here: although Coralie Fargeat’s movie represents the most audacious, auteurial vision here, we’ll have to give the runner-up edge to Baker and Audiard. Baker’s film seems like the strongest across the board, and it would be great to see Baker’s distinctive style finally recognized on this level by the industry, but it’s also true that the directors’ branch has a taste for the international, often bringing in a surprise contender from overseas whose film didn’t rack up many other nominations. In this case, that contender isn’t much of a surprise at all – Frenchman Audiard’s movie is leading the charge. Could that push him closer to the win? Honestly, this category might decide Best Picture.

Will Win: Brady Corbet

Should Win: Coralie Fargeat

Should Have Been Here: RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys)

 

Best Original Screenplay

• Anora

• The Brutalist

• A Real Pain

• September 5

• The Substance

If Baker isn’t able to triumph in the director category, however, there’s a great chance that the Academy will still want to recognize him somewhere, and get him up on stage to deliver a speech about his writing instead. Remarkably, he’s also nominated as an editor and a producer – could you imagine if he had to deliver four acceptance speeches? There are a lot of spectacular things about Anora, but its screenplay is probably its centrepiece. Perfectly oscillating from comedy to tragedy, fleshing out unexpected characters and keeping the audience on their toes at all times, it would be a worthy win. A Real Pain works so well for very similar reasons, but it’s more of a long shot here after missing Best Picture. Of course, if the Oscars throw a Brutalist party instead, there’s a great chance it could pick up this one to add to its winning package as well – but hilarious parts of The Substance screenplay have been going viral online, so we’ll once again put our hopes out into the universe. (Can you tell we love this movie?)

Will Win: Anora

Should Win: A Real Pain

Should Have Been Here: Challengers

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

• A Complete Unknown

• Conclave

• Emilia Perez

• Nickel Boys

• Sing Sing

If the voters want to continue spreading the love like they did last year, and Emilia Perez and The Brutalist continue to prove themselves as the two big champs, then Conclave joining Anora as a screenplay victor makes all the sense in the world. A film that hinges on its dialogue, the late-night meetings and papal arguments make the film what it is – a lot more compelling than you’d expect after reading the synopsis! As we said in our review, the film isn’t only about those juicy rumours flying around – it also has a lot to say in acting as a microcosm for our world at large, whether it’s commentary on religion, politics, or their inevitable combination. This is one of those categories that proves to be a bit of a bellwether for how the rest of the night might go, so if A Complete Unknown – or even Emilia Perez – continue to show strength and surprise here, you might want to start making some last-minute scribbles on your ballot at your Oscar party. 

Will Win: Conclave

Should Win: Conclave

Should Have Been Here: The Wild Robot

 

Best Animated Film

• Flow

• Inside Out 2

• Memoir Of A Snail

• Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

• The Wild Robot

To an outside observer, it might appear like we have a two-horse race on our hands here: only two of the year’s true box-office successes made it in, and, unfortunate as it is, it’s been a bit of a journey getting people to take this category as seriously as it deserves to be – many voters have admitted to not watching and simply voting for their children’s favourites. The truth is that we do have a two-horse race, but it’s not the one you’d expect. Despite being the box-office champ, Inside Out 2 hasn’t actually been picking up any wins, leaving the victory speeches to The Wild Robot and, amazingly, Flow. A truly indie movie hailing from the country of Latvia, Flow actually defeated the robot where it needed to the most so far – the Golden Globes. Following an unlikely band of animals teaming up to survive a natural disaster in a post-apocalyptic world, the film is completely dialogue-free and was created entirely on the free platform Blender. After Miyazaki took down Spider-Verse last year, could it be that tastes are changing? It would be great, but for now, we’ll still play it safe and give it to an equally breathtaking film. 

Will Win: The Wild Robot

Should Win: Flow

Should Have Been Here: Transformers One 

 

Best International Film

• Emilia Perez (France)

• Flow (Latvia)

• The Girl With The Needle (Denmark)

• I’m Still Here (Brazil)

• The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

One of the most easily predictable categories in recent years, even Oscar nerds have yawned through the announcement of Best International Film in the last couple ceremonies – reason being that it typically contains an obvious champ, the sole Best Picture nominee of the bunch. This year, though, we have a historic achievement: two films in this category have finally made it to the big show! With Emilia Perez’s aforementioned thirteen nominations, you’d think that it would still be an uphill battle for Brazil to triumph with I’m Still Here, but with so much controversy surrounding the former, who truly knows? If there’s one thing Brazil is good at when it comes to anything entertainment, it’s promotion – just check out any YouTube comment section for an example. For once, we have a real race, and we would be remiss not to recommend the three other spectacular films from Latvia, Denmark and Germany as well. We’re going to go out on a limb here and predict an upset. 

Will Win: I’m Still Here

Should Win: I’m Still Here

Should Have Been Here: Kneecap (Ireland)

Tune into the Oscars on Sunday, March 2 from 4:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m. PST.