Voted on by the film community, star power isn’t always a necessity for a winning track. It’s often more about a combination of quality and importance to the film they hail from: just look at “Naatu Naatu” from Bollywood epic RRR triumphing over Rihanna’s “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther 2 at the 2023 ceremony. Still, with the expectation that the nominees will perform their tracks live at the show, it certainly can’t hurt. Here’s a ranking of the most likely nominees when March rolls around. 

Frontrunners

Zoe Saldana – “El Mal” (Emilia Perez)

If they can manage to recreate the scene that the track comes from on the Oscar stage, there aren’t many songs in the category that would make for a more spellbinding live performance. Zoe Saldana has been one of our most underrated actresses for years – she stars in four of the six highest-grossing films of all time, after all – and she adds an impassioned vocal performance to her impressive career roster. With a rock edge and rapid-fire lyrics, Saldana’s lawyer character dances around a room full of suspects, frozen in time, while hurling fiery accusations. 

Selena Gomez – “Mi Camino” (Emilia Perez)

Less essential to the plot of Emilia Perez, but with more of a typical song structure and a pop star present to deliver it, “Mi Camino” is sung by Selena Gomez’s character at a karaoke party in the film. When translated to English, the lyrics about self-love and staying true to who you really are mirror the film’s message about a trans woman’s journey and could resonate with voters. And yes, being a widely celebrated original musical, it is very possible that both Emilia Perez tracks appear on nomination morning – the rules are that each film can submit three songs, and a maximum of two can get nominated. 

Maren Morris – “Kiss The Sky” (The Wild Robot)

It doesn’t matter who you are – there aren’t many film scenes this year more guaranteed to get the tear ducts flowing than the moment a robot finally succeeds at teaching a young goose to fly in Dreamworks’ latest gorgeously animated offering. Backed up by Morris’ country-pop tune, the song itself is mostly just the Oscars’ favourite kind of generally uplifting, surface-level inspirational anthem that plays it pretty safe sonically … but its placement in soundtracking such a pivotal and memorable scene might swing quite a few votes its way. 

H.E.R. – “The Journey” (The Six Triple Eight)

No, Tyler Perry’s war drama about an all-Black female battalion isn’t widely regarded as a major awards player in other categories, but we once again simply have to accept a simple fact of the season. Diane Warren, the legendary songwriter who lends a tune sung by fellow awards darling H.E.R. to the soundtrack, must have something on the Academy. Warren has been nominated fourteen times, never winning, including at eight of the last ten ceremonies. Among her recent entries, this is genuinely one of the better ones – a piano and string ballad highlighting the best parts of H.E.R.’s boundless voice. 

Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross – “Compress/Repress” (Challengers)

Reznor and Ross have been giving us outstanding film scores for quite a few years now, but when it comes to possible live performances at the Oscars, we can only be so lucky that Reznor decided to add some of his own vocals to a track from the immediately intoxicating Challengers soundtrack. Backed by the upbeat techno score that coloured many of the film’s most intense scenes, Reznor and his wife, How To Destroy Angels frontwoman Mariqueen Maandig-Reznor, trade lines on a track that builds up to a thematically appropriate refrain: “All is lust / All is lost.” 

The Underdogs

Kristen Wiig – “Harper and Will Go West” (Will & Harper)

It’s always easy to root for the one or two comedic tracks that appear on the Oscar shortlist to make it to the full ceremony, especially when there’s so much heart behind them. The song comes from a documentary where Will Ferrell and former SNL head writer Harper Steele, who recently underwent a gender transition and now lives as a trans woman, take a road trip together and reaffirm their longtime friendship in the wake of this change. As Wiig sings lyrics like “Like Thelma and Louise but with a lot less death” and tries to rationalize the space in the car preventing herself from being invited on the trip, a live performance on the show would be both hilarious and important for some people to hear. 

Abraham Alexander & Adrian Quesada – “Like A Bird” (Sing Sing)

Texas soul singer Abraham Alexander lends his vocals to this track, which plays over the credits of “Sing Sing” and bolsters the film’s story of incarcerated individuals – played by a cast of real-life former residents of the prison the film is set in – working their way back to freedom as they participate in the Rehabilitation Through the Arts program. Despite the infectious groove and the quality of the song, it’s seemed like the Academy have been slowly moving away from tunes relegated to the credits lately, instead opting for ones that play more of a part in the film’s narrative. 

Auli’i Cravalho – “Beyond” (Moana 2)

While it’s true that most of the songs from Disney’s latest sequel pale in comparison to the Lin-Manuel Miranda-penned tunes that made the original Moana the studio’s most-streamed movie of all time (and that includes Star Wars and MCU fare), at least the voters chose the only one that’s kind of a show-stopper. As our Polynesian princess prepares to set sail once again, she belts out an “I Want” song for the ages – still, though, the general ill will towards the film’s quality might have an impact on the song’s chances of getting in. 

Elton John & Brandi Carlile – “Never Too Late” (Elton John: Never Too Late)

Apparently written on a whim by Carlile – attempting to emulate the legendary Bernie Taupin’s style – after getting to see an early version of the documentary it hails from, this track hasn’t been receiving a ton of attention in awards circles yet. With John’s ongoing health struggles, a co-production credit from superproducer Andrew Watt, and a collaboration between beloved songwriters past and present, though, it’s certainly never too late for it to pick up steam. 

Kneecap – “Sick In The Head” (Kneecap)

While it would be incredible to see the three lads of Kneecap storming the Oscar stage, we’ll probably have to hold out hope for a miracle. The voters haven’t been gravitating towards hip-hop in recent years, and the profile of the group’s eponymous film is relatively low compared to many in the category. With a combination of high-octane rhymes and buzzing electronics as the trio make a deal with the devil to trade in their mental health for riches, there aren’t many songs that represent the Kneecap ethos better than this one. 

Long Shots

Pharrell Williams – “Piece By Piece” (Piece By Piece)

Although making the choice to tell his life story with the medium of Lego was a choice that highlighted the spirit of creativity that has been the ethos of Pharrell’s career, this isn’t a song that anyone is going to hold in high regard against the rest of his discography. There’s something odd going on rhythmically that makes it feel like you’re waiting for the song to click together the whole time. Add to the fact that documentary nominations in this category are somewhat rare and this one is landing in the lower tier. 

Aaron Pierre & Tiffany Boone – “Tell Me It’s You” (Mufasa: The Lion King)

For whatever reason, news has come out that Disney opted not to send out any screeners for its sequel/prequel/whateverquel to 2019’s live-action Lion King movie, causing it to miss out on VFX and song lists where it was expected to possibly appear simply due to low viewership. With a handful of ill will already directed at the movie’s uncanny valley visuals, this duet between Simba’s young parents is unlikely to make much of a splash despite its Lin-Manuel Miranda writing credit (he’s still looking to complete his EGOT with that elusive Oscar!)

Lainey Wilson – “Out Of Oklahoma” (Twisters)

Can Lainey Wilson add to her impressive last couple of years with an Oscar nomination? While you have to wonder why they submitted this one instead of Luke Combs’ bigger (similarly OK-themed) hit “Ain’t No Love In Oklahoma,” Twisters’ country edge and silly summer-blockbuster status might prove divisive to voting bodies. 

Saoirse Ronan – “Winter Coat” (Blitz)

Is there anything that Saoirse Ronan can’t do? Unleashing a singing voice that’s equally as powerful as some of her great performances over the years, its unfortunate placement in a previously buzzed-about Steve McQueen World War II film that many audiences saw as muddled and disappointing means that it’s lucky to appear on any list. Ronan’s character performing a jazzy, appropriately vintage-sounding tune hoping for her son’s safe return after being separated during the bombings of London is the best part of the film, tugging at the heartstrings.