The most exciting thing about this year’s ceremony has to be the fact that we’ve come a long way from when disgraced former Recording Academy chairman Neil Portnow infamously commented in 2018 that if women wanted to be better represented amongst the nominees, they’d need to “step up.” Five years later, we have the most female-dominated ceremony of all time. With SZA, Victoria Monet and Phoebe Bridgers leading the charge, there’s actually only a single man (former champ and Grammy favourite Jon Batiste) to be found with a nomination in any of the ceremony’s three biggest categories – Album, Record and Song of the Year. At the same time, the Recording Academy’s obvious oversight of folk, country and Latin music in a year where the genres dominated certainly raises eyebrows.

With other stars like Billie Eilish, Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo and Lana Del Rey in the mix, predictions this year are as difficult as ever. After Harry Styles took home the big one over Beyonce, Kendrick Lamar and Bad Bunny last year to a barrage of online displeasure, whether the pendulum will swing back to more of a critical darling – as it often does – is anyone’s guess. This year’s eligibility period was October 1, 2022 to September 15, 2023, in case you’re searching for your late-year faves. 

Album of the Year

• Jon Batiste – World Music Radio
• boygenius – the record
• Miley Cyrus – Endless Summer Vacation
• Lana Del Rey – Did you know that there’s a tunnel under Ocean Blvd
• Janelle Monae – The Age Of Pleasure
• Olivia Rodrigo – GUTS
• Taylor Swift – Midnights
• SZA – SOS

There are a lot of narratives at play when it comes to the biggest award of the night. You’d have to think that after the disgruntled reaction to previous champ Harry Styles’ speech about the award not “happen[ing] to people like me” – as well as ongoing efforts to diversify the voting body – that a SZA victory would make sense. You could easily argue that her album drove culture in 2023 in many ways, racking up two of the year’s ten biggest hits, and it would make her the first woman of colour since Norah Jones in 2003 to win the big one.

Recent winner Jon Batiste appears again, against the artist that many thought should have defeated him in the first place with her debut, SOUR – will they give a retrospective trophy to Olivia Rodrigo? Lana Del Rey (a past nominee) and boygenius have some of the most universally acclaimed albums of the year, and of course, you can never count out Taylor Swift – but even after her impossibly massive year, are the Grammys ready to make Swift the winningest artist in history with a fourth Album of the Year victory, breaking her out of a tie with Frank Sinatra, Stevie Wonder and Paul Simon? All will be revealed, but for now, SZA seems to check the most boxes. 

Will Win: SOS
Should Win: Did you know that there’s a tunnel under Ocean Blvd
Should Have Been Here: Arlo Parks – My Soft Machine

 

 

Record of the Year

• Jon Batiste – “Worship”
• boygenius – “Not Strong Enough”
• Miley Cyrus – “Flowers”
• Billie Eilish – “What Was I Made For?”
• Victoria Monet – “On My Mama”
• Olivia Rodrigo – “vampire”
• Taylor Swift – “Anti-Hero”
• SZA – “Kill Bill”

While her Midnights, not quite as critically beloved as her past Grammy-sweeping eras, might not take home the grand prize, it would be foolish not to expect Tay Tay to deliver at least one of her famously dramatic acceptance speeches. Since Record of the Year is often awarded to that song that blasted from every corner of Earth and nobody could avoid getting stuck in their head all year, her eight-week number one “Anti-Hero” is a safe bet. Miley Cyrus’ “Flowers” and nomination leader SZA’s “Kill Bill” were even bigger songs, while Billie Eilish has been one of the Grammy’s favourites since her debut – any of them could easily play spoiler. We love Victoria Monet unexpectedly showing up among the titans, though! 

Will Win: “Anti-Hero”
Should Win: “Kill Bill”
Should Have Been Here: Noah Kahan & Post Malone – “Dial Drunk”

 

Song of the Year

• Jon Batiste – “Butterfly”
• Miley Cyrus – “Flowers”
• Lana Del Rey – “A&W”
• Billie Eilish – “What Was I Made For?”
• Dua Lipa – “Dance The Night”
• Olivia Rodrigo – “vampire”
• Taylor Swift – “Anti-Hero”
• SZA – “Kill Bill”

Since it’s easy to forget every year (they should really use clearer language!), Song of the Year is an award based on songwriting and lyricism, rather than the melody and production. Recent champs have ranged everywhere from political anthems from Childish Gambino and H.E.R., honouring legends like Bonnie Raitt, and simple, catchy and well-written pop tracks from Billie Eilish and Silk Sonic, so it’s hard to know where they’ll go. If Grammy favourite Eilish is going to show up anywhere, though, it’s here, for a track that flawlessly hammers home the message of Barbie. Of course, Swift – and her disciple, Olivia Rodrigo – are universally recognized as incredible songwriters in their own right, but we’re willing to bet the Grammys will want to spread the love a little more this year. 

Will Win: “What Was I Made For?”
Should Win: “A&W”
Should Have Been Here: Zach Bryan & Kacey Musgraves – “I Remember Everything”

 

Best New Artist

• Gracie Abrams
• Fred Again..
• Ice Spice
• Jelly Roll
• Coco Jones
• Noah Kahan
• Victoria Monet
• The War and Treaty

To first address the Ice Spice-sized elephant in the room: it’s undeniable that the newly-anointed Princess of New York made the biggest impact on culture out of any new act in 2023, but since the Grammys often use a combination of commercial success and critical acclaim to determine their winners, the more black-tie ceremony doesn’t seem like the place you’d expect her to pick up wins – as much as we’d love to see it. Noah Kahan and Jelly Roll were undisputed leaders of a more alternative and authentic country-folk surge this year, while Gracie Abrams is one of the industry’s finest nepo babies and opened for the Eras Tour. Still, there’s only one artist here that broke into the general field, and that’s rising R&B star Victoria Monet. 

Will Win: Victoria Monet
Should Win: Noah Kahan
Should Have Been Here: Peso Pluma

 

Best Pop Vocal Album

• Kelly Clarkson – Chemistry
• Miley Cyrus – Endless Summer Vacation
• Olivia Rodrigo – GUTS
• Ed Sheeran – –
• Taylor Swift – Midnights

With three album of the year nominations in the field – and Miley Cyrus’ project with a more middling critical response mostly only showing up due to the commercial strength of some of its singles – this one should likely come down to a showdown between the student and the teacher as GUTS takes on Midnights. It could easily go either way, as both projects offered quite a few unforgettable musical moments this year, but we’ll give the edge to Swift to walk out with a small armful of trophies after the astronomical year that she had. One has to ask, though – if the Grammys were able to recognize Caroline Polachek’s showstopper in the field for best audio engineering, why not here? 

Will Win: Midnights
Should Win: GUTS
Should Have Been Here: Caroline Polachek – Desire, I Want To Turn Into You

 

Best Alternative Album

• Arctic Monkeys – The Car
• boygenius – the record
• Lana Del Rey – Did you know that there’s a tunnel under Ocean Blvd
• Gorillaz – Cracker Island
• PJ Harvey – I Inside The Old Year Dying

Often one of the ceremony’s most fascinating categories as buzzing smaller acts from across a wide variety of genres and sounds get lumped together under the “alternative” umbrella, Album of the Year nominees boygenius and Lana Del Rey appear here to do battle as the sound shifts from the heavier indie-rock of last year’s ceremony to some poppier records. We love to see the recognition for the synth-pop and funk odyssey Cracker Island, but this one will land in the pocket of a woman (or three) with a soothing, ethereal voice. boygenius has a slight critical edge, but Del Rey has more Grammy history, possibly a little overdue after going 0 for 6 in the past. 

Will Win: Did you know that there’s a tunnel under Ocean Blvd
Should Win: Did you know that there’s a tunnel under Ocean Blvd
Should Have Been Here: Hozier – Unreal Unearth

 

Best Rock Album

• Foo Fighters – But Here We Are
• Greta Van Fleet – Starcatcher
• Metallica – 72 Seasons
• Paramore – This Is Why
• Queens of the Stone Age – In Times New Roman…

Despite their up-and-down efforts over the years, the Foo Fighters are the heavy hitters in this category, and it’s not even close – they’ve racked up five victories here, while no other band or artist has more than two. The funny thing is, adding yet another golden gramophone to their total would actually be quite deserved this year. But Here We Are is a touching tribute to late drummer Taylor Hawkins, as well as Dave Grohl’s mother, who passed away around the same time. It’s hard to imagine Grammy voters being anything less than deeply moved by one of their longtime favourite acts. With a ton of acclaim on their side, Paramore could easily swoop in to steal it – though the Grammys have also been known to simply throw a rock award at an aging legend like Metallica or QOTSA for name recognition alone.  

Will Win: But Here We Are
Should Win: This Is Why
Should Have Been Here: Mammoth WVH – II

 

Best R&B Album

• Babyface – Girls Night Out
• Coco Jones – What I Didn’t Tell You
• Emily King – Special Occasion
• Victoria Monet – Jaguar II
• Summer Walker – Clear 2: Soft Life

While they should really switch the televised award over to the Best Progressive R&B Album category, where some of the more modernized and culture-shifting artists do battle year after year – Album of the Year nominees Janelle Monae and SZA both appear in that category instead – this one still has a nice mix of legends and new talent. Although former Disney Channel actress (and current Bel-Air star) Coco Jones did make it into the Best New Artist field, Monet’s biggest track had enough passion behind it to get nominated for Record of the Year. She should take this one – and we’ll put that on our mama.

Will Win: Jaguar II
Should Win: Jaguar II
Should Have Been Here: RAYE – My 21st Century Blues

 

Best Rap Album

• Drake & 21 Savage – HER LOSS
• Killer Mike – MICHAEL
• Metro Boomin – HEROES & VILLAINS
• Nas – King’s Disease III
• Travis Scott – UTOPIA

Best Rap Album has been one of the Grammys’ most long-derided categories when it comes to out-of-touch nominations – from fans and artists alike. Still, when it comes to what was a bit of a down year when it came to creative and boundary-pushing hip-hop in the Grammys’ more mainstream sphere of influence, they honestly couldn’t have done much better than the five that they chose. From Travis Scott’s continued creativity on UTOPIA to Metro Boomin’s production wizardry, Killer Mike’s unmatched panache and a continuation of Nas’ already-victorious King’s Disease series, it’s a buffet of options. Scott and Metro Boomin are the heavy-hitters here, as Drake should likely be counted out for his ongoing Grammy disses – HER LOSS was submitted only by 21 Savage’s team. Scott might have a bit of an edge when it comes to commercial heft, but will his controversies draw voters away? 

Will Win: UTOPIA
Should Win: HEROES & VILLAINS
Should Have Been Here: Little Simz – NO THANK YOU

 

Best Country Album

• Kelsea Ballerini – Rolling Up The Welcome Mat
• Brothers Osborne – Brothers Osborne
• Zach Bryan – Zach Bryan
• Tyler Childers – Rustin’ In The Rain
• Lainey Wilson – Bell Bottom Country

Even though the nominations committee couldn’t throw artists like Zach Bryan a bone in the General Field – his stripped-back and poetically-written duet with Kacey Musgraves, “I Remember Everything,” hitting the number one spot this year speaks volumes to the year that alt-country and folk music had and has a case for winning Song of the Year – they have to at least recognize him with a win in his own genre field, right? We forget that one of the biggest outrages at last year’s nominations list was the lack of Bryan anywhere, after his song “Something In The Orange” touched souls around the globe. If the Grammys don’t get with the picture, it could go to perennial favourite Brothers Osborne, or Lainey Wilson – who had a year that was almost as massive. 

Will Win: Zach Bryan
Should Win: Zach Bryan
Should Have Been Here: Luke Combs – Gettin’ Old