In the wake of a historically female field that saw Taylor Swift once again walk away with a record-setting fourth Album of the Year win for Midnights last year, the women are once again running the show for the most part, as the aforementioned Charli xcx and Swift join Billie Eilish, Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan and Beyonce at the top of the list of nominations. Kendrick Lamar and Post Malone also racked up an impressive haul, but most impressively, Beyonce actually breaks out of a tie with her husband to become the sole holder of the most nominated artist of all time. Will it finally translate to success in the Big Four, the lack of which so many of her peers have bemoaned for decades? Time will tell, but for now, here are our best guesses.

If you’re wondering about the absence of some of your favourite projects that came out in the latter part of 2024, the eligibility period for the Grammys, for whatever reason, runs from September 16, 2023 to August 30, 2024. Joining a small but mighty list of holdouts that includes Drake and The Weeknd, Zach Bryan also elected not to submit his work this year. 

Album of the Year

• André 3000 – New Blue Sun
• Beyoncé – COWBOY CARTER
• Sabrina Carpenter – Short n’ Sweet
• Charli xcx – BRAT
• Jacob Collier – Djesse Vol. 4
• Billie Eilish – HIT ME HARD AND SOFT
• Chappell Roan – The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess
• Taylor Swift – THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT

As perennial favourites collide with new stars, predicting the biggest award of the night is pretty tough this time around. The first names that jump out as obvious contenders are Eilish and Swift, who have won nearly everything they’ve been nominated for in recent years. Already the all-time record holder and having put out the most critically middling album of her career, you’d think that we’re finally reaching critical Swift overexposure – but we also said that last year. Eilish’s latest is regarded by some as her best, but even she’s starting to seem a little uncomfortable at the constant praise in recent speeches (she won her second Song of the Year trophy last year for ‘What Was I Made For?’).

If it’s going to go to a past winner, Eilish is likely, but what about the first-timers? Andre 3000’s flute opus and Jacob Collier’s latest collaborative odyssey are the long shots without many nominations elsewhere. Beyonce’s country pivot finally getting her that big win would be a stellar moment, but with so many in her own field unfortunately reluctant to embrace it, picking up nothing at the Country Music Awards, missing a key voting base means it doesn’t seem highly likely either. That leaves 2024’s pop trifecta of Charli xcx, Sabrina Carpenter and Chappell Roan. As stellar as it is, it’s easy to forget that BRAT literally contains a track where xcx jokingly fantasizes about orchestrating a terrorist attack at the Grammy ceremony as revenge for years of being overlooked. The Grammys do love an overnight pop success story, and taking their usual combination of commercial success and critical acclaim into account, it seems like Roan would barely edge out Carpenter. We might see the Midwest Princess ride her pink pony all the way to Grammy glory. 

Will Win: The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess
Should Win: BRAT
Should Have Been Here: Vampire Weekend – Only God Was Above Us

Record of the Year

• The Beatles – “Now and Then”
• Beyoncé – “TEXAS HOLD ‘EM”
• Sabrina Carpenter – “Espresso”
• Charli xcx – “360”
• Billie Eilish – “BIRDS OF A FEATHER”
• Kendrick Lamar – “Not Like Us”
• Chappell Roan – “Good Luck, Babe!”
• Taylor Swift – “Fortnight” ft. Post Malone

With recent winners like “Flowers,” “About Damn Time” and “Leave the Door Open,” this is the place for those tunes that both defined the year and had melodies infectious enough to find yourself humming them absentmindedly every chance you got. In the latter sense, can you really deny “Espresso”? While there are certainly more acclaimed songs on the list, you have to imagine a Grammy voter trying to select the year’s most representative song seeing the title of Carpenter’s hit and having every one of the song’s fifteen most quotable lines rushing back. 

As far as the category’s spoilers, heavy hitters like Eilish, Beyonce and Swift appear here once more, the universally pleasant “BIRDS OF A FEATHER” once more being the most likely champ of the three. “Not Like Us” becoming a Grammy-winning diss track would be hilarious, and “360” truly defined our year the most, but you also have to acknowledge the historical elephant in the room. CEO Harvey Mason Jr. clarified the Grammys’ stance on AI by saying that work with AI components will be accepted if there are also human elements to the track, thus disqualifying works like that fake Drake and Weeknd song that found success last year. With new contributions from the living Beatle members, however, a refurbished John Lennon demo from 1977 billed as the “Final Beatles song” appears here, and is sure to appeal to the emotions of many voters.

Will Win: “Espresso”
Should Win: “360”
Should Have Been Here: Ariana Grande – “we can’t be friends (wait for your love)”

Song of the Year

• Beyoncé – “TEXAS HOLD ‘EM”
• Sabrina Carpenter – “Please Please Please”
• Billie Eilish – “BIRDS OF A FEATHER”
• Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars – “Die With a Smile”
• Kendrick Lamar – “Not Like Us”
• Chappell Roan – “Good Luck, Babe!”
• Shaboozey – “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”
• Taylor Swift – “Fortnight” ft. Post Malone

Differing from Record of the Year by honouring the lyricism and songwriting of a track, this award has frequently gone to both socially-conscious and meaningful tracks and smartly-written hooks that became earworms. Without much of the former in this year’s crop of nominations, look for the tunes with lyrics that you couldn’t stop quoting out loud. One strategy for predicting winners is checking the overlap with the “Record of the Year” category – “Please Please Please,” “Die With a Smile” and “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” replace “360,” “Now and Then” and “Espresso” here – but with the kind of Grammy track record Bruno Mars brings, that stat might actually break this year. Nominated here for his striking duet with the equally Academy-beloved Lady Gaga, its omission for Record of the Year might just be chalked up to the fact that it barely made the submission deadline. The track is some of the most obvious Grammy bait in years. 

Of the five contenders – Beyonce, Eilish, Lamar, Roan and Swift – that bridge the gap between the categories, Lamar and Roan seem the most deserving from the standpoint of catchy yet clever or poetic lyricism. Roan could have a truly huge night, but maybe Lamar’s systematic takedown of a massive figure that the Grammys already have resentment for could mean something. 

Will Win: “Die With A Smile”
Should Win: “Not Like Us”
Should Have Been Here: Hozier – “Too Sweet”

Best New Artist

• Benson Boone
• Sabrina Carpenter
• Doechii
• Khruangbin
• RAYE
• Chappell Roan
• Shaboozey 
• Teddy Swims

Regardless of your feelings for any of these artists, you have to admit that this is a pretty stacked lineup. Boone, Swims and Shaboozey are the forces behind the year’s three biggest songs from a statistical standpoint – “Beautiful Things,” “Lose Control” and “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” respectively, but Shaboozey’s track is the only one that the voters felt the need to honour in the other categories. As far as other contenders making it into the general field, a huge indicator of success in this category, it’s only down to Carpenter and Roan, their respective huge successes across the board making it a pretty clear two-horse race. Truthfully, the way this category falls might genuinely be a bellwether for the Album of the Year announcement at the end of the night, but once again, we’ll bet on Roan barely eking out Carpenter when it comes to critical acclaim. We’d love to see RAYE take it, but without many releases this year, her inclusion mostly feels like an apology for overlooking her at last year’s ceremony. 

Will Win: Chappell Roan
Should Win: Chappell Roan
Should Have Been Here: The Last Dinner Party

Best Pop Vocal Album

• Sabrina Carpenter – Short n’ Sweet
• Billie Eilish – HIT ME HARD AND SOFT
• Ariana Grande – eternal sunshine
• Chappell Roan – The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess
• Taylor Swift – THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT

Despite many of the oddsmakers proclaiming Ariana Grande’s eternal sunshine as a favourite to take this category before the nominations were announced, it’s actually the only nominee here that doesn’t also appear in Album of the Year, making its success least likely. Yet another of the categories to watch if you’re trying to judge the best odds for the big trophy at the end of the night, Carpenter, Eilish, Roan and Swift will once again enter the arena here. While HIT ME HARD AND SOFT might be the most across-the-board acclaimed album here, and the Grammy voters could easily throw their perennial darling a bone, was there a better, more exciting album released in the eligibility period that truly captured the spirit of Pop with a capital P than The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess? As a side note – can we get a performance of “Hot To Go!” during the broadcast?

Will Win: The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess
Should Win: The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess
Should Have Been Here: Tyla – Tyla (especially after the odd decision of shifting her R&B and Afrobeats-tinged album to the pop categories)

Best Alternative Album

• Nick Cave & The Bad Seeds – Wild God
• Clairo – Charm
• Kim Gordon – The Collective
• Brittany Howard – What Now
• St. Vincent – All Born Screaming

Now this is an impressive category. Who knew that the Grammys could sometimes get it so right? With a full roster of some of RANGE’s favourite artists, the two contenders with the most Grammy history are St. Vincent, who has picked this award up twice, and Brittany Howard, who swept the category with her band Alabama Shakes when they first broke through onto the scene. Howard’s album is truly one of the year’s best, but still, the fact that the previously winless Nick Cave, and more shockingly, the nomination-less Kim Gordon are here looking to cash in on career narratives means that Grammy voters have to be thinking about creating a great moment. Still, the Grammys do love routine, so as long as St. Vincent keeps delivering, the same voters just might keep voting.  

Will Win: All Born Screaming
Should Win: What Now
Should Have Been Here: Maggie Rogers – Don’t Forget Me

Best Rock Album

• The Black Crowes – Happiness Bastards
• Fontaines D.C. – Romance
• Green Day – Saviors
• IDLES – TANGK
• Pearl Jam – Dark Matter
• The Rolling Stones – Hackney Diamonds
• Jack White – No Name

Often derided for sticking a little too closely to longstanding formulae and trotting out legends year after year instead of those keeping things fresh, at least things are looking up this year. Some of those legends – namely Pearl Jam, the Stones and Jack White – really do belong here this year, dropping some of their best work in decades. Plus, RANGE favourites Fontaines D.C. and IDLES join the party. While we love the new Fontaines album, odds and experts seem to be heavily favouring The Stones’ return to the winners circle for the first time since 1995. It makes sense – with rave reviews and collaborations including Elton John, Paul McCartney, Stevie Wonder and Lady Gaga, it feels like enough of a perfect amalgamation of legends for voters to reward. 

Will Win: Hackney Diamonds
Should Win: Romance
Should Have Been Here: Mannequin Pussy – I Got Heaven

Best Progressive R&B Album

• Avery*Sunshine – So Glad to Know You
• Durand Bernarr – En Route
• Childish Gambino – Bando Stone and The New World
• Kehlani – Crash
• NxWorries – Why Lawd?

We’ve covered the “Best R&B Album” category on RANGE in the past, but we’re switching over to the Progressive field this year. The nominations in each category continue to show the division between more experimental, groundbreaking works and more traditionalist fare ticking the boxes of what “R&B” is meant to be, whereas the modern spirit of genre-free music resides more here. With high-profile entries this year from previous nominees Gambino, Kehlani and Anderson .Paak – as part of his duo with Knxwledge, NxWorries – it’s anyone’s game. Although Gambino released a fun, accessible album that has a little bit of everything on it and will appeal to many voters, you’d be surprised at just how much the Grammys have awarded .Paak as a solo act before he swept as part of Silk Sonic. With another excellent album under his belt, the love should continue.

Will Win: Why Lawd?
Should Win: Why Lawd?
Should Have Been Here: Tinashe – Quantum Baby

Best Rap Album

• J. Cole – Might Delete Later
• Common & Pete Rock – The Auditorium, Vol. 1
• Doechii – Alligator Bites Never Heal
• Eminem – The Death of Slim Shady (Coup De Grace)
• Future & Metro Boomin – We Don’t Trust You

Yeesh. Forget the fact that J. Cole still hasn’t picked up a win in this category for a second – nominating a rushed, mediocre album that the artist himself has said he’s not proud of and snubbing quite a few deserving albums shows why so many in the hip-hop community have such disdain for the Grammys. Vince Staples, ScHoolboy Q, Megan Thee Stallion and Doja Cat all easily could have muscled their way in here – and those are just the commercial ones. Another reason why: despite his spotty track record, the Grammys LOVE Eminem. With arguably improved quality on The Death of Slim Shady and the dramatic closure of a story and character many voters will be familiar with, there’s no reason to expect anything else. 

Will Win: The Death of Slim Shady (Coup De Grace)
Should Win: We Don’t Trust You
Should Have Been Here: Vince Staples – Dark Times

Best Country Album

• Beyoncé – COWBOY CARTER
• Post Malone – F-1 Trillion
• Kacey Musgraves – Deeper Well
• Chris Stapleton – Higher
• Lainey Wilson – Whirlwind

In a night of stacked categories, this one might be the most insane of all. We have two superstars donning their cowboy boots and shifting genres – a storyline that many voters are sure to love – going up against defending champion Lainey Wilson as well as longtime Grammy favourites Kacey Musgraves and Chris Stapleton, who collectively have five of the prior ten wins under their belt. Despite the fact that the outstanding COWBOY CARTER wasn’t able to gain recognition at the CMAs, at this more widespread ceremony, you’d have to think that the non-country voters throwing support behind it might outnumber the traditionalists showing Musgraves some love. Of the three country stalwarts, her album was by far the most acclaimed this time around and could easily play spoiler. 

Will Win: COWBOY CARTER
Should Win: COWBOY CARTER
Should Have Been Here: Orville Peck – Stampede